2021 College Football Mathematical Preview: The Big Ten

This summer, as is my annual tradition, I have been applying a set of mathematical tools to try to better understand how the coming college football season may play out. In part one of this series, I presented the first set of data from my simulation of the full season, and completed a full breakdown of Michigan State’s schedule. Today, it is time to take a broader look at the Big Ten.

The basic method that I utilize involves generating an average preseason power ranking of all 130 FBS college football teams using the consensus of the rankings from various magazines and websites. I can then project point spread and victory probabilities for every game in the upcoming season, including possible College Football Playoff matchups.

As an additional input to my model, I also add the historical uncertainty in the preseason rankings themselves. Finally, I perform 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations

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College Football Odds

North Carolina college football preview 2021: Can Tar Heels take the next step?

July 9, 2021 - by Ludivina Leveto

The North Carolina Tar Heels came into the 2020 season as a trendy pick for plenty of reasons. They had a proven stud at quarterback with a head coach who is highly thought of. North Carolina finished 8-4 with a loss in the Orange Bowl, so the program is still looking to take that next step as a challenger to Clemson.

Mack Brown has done a fantastic job turning the Tar Heels around quickly, and Sam Howell might be the best quarterback in the sport. He will be tasked with finding new play makers as two North Carolina running backs and two wide receivers were selected in this spring’s NFL Draft.

The Tar Heels enter 2021 with high expectations once again, and a double-digit win season is certainly not out of the question as they look to contend for an ACC Coastal title.

2020 Season Review

8-4, 7-3

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College Football Odds

Miami Hurricanes college football preview 2021: Can the Canes play for an ACC Championship?

July 6, 2021 - by Ludivina Leveto

The Miami Hurricanes enjoyed a relatively successful 9-3 campaign in 2020 with a midseason 25-point loss to Clemson illustrating that there’s much more work that needs to be done before the ‘U’ is officially “back”.

The Canes were clutch throughout most of their ACC schedule, winning five ballgames by two scores or less before the bottom fell out in an embarrassing 62-26 loss to North Carolina in the season finale. This prompted head coach Manny Diaz to shake up his defensive coaching staff, effectively dumping DC Blake Baker and making himself the defensive playcaller. With a boatload of returning starters, including quarterback D’Eriq King, Miami will gun for their first ACC Coastal crown since 2017 and possibly their first outright league title.

2020 Season Review

2021 Talent

2021 247Sports Composite Ranking: 11
ESPN Returning Production: 91 overall (3rd): 95% offense (1st), 86% defense (12th)
Returning Talent Index:

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College Football Odds

Clemson college football preview 2021: DJ Uiagalelei makes Tigers a massive favorite in ACC

July 4, 2021 - by Ludivina Leveto

The Clemson Tigers fell short in their College Football Playoff semifinal game in 2020, but they return a loaded roster ready to compete for a spot in the top four once again. Even with Trevor Lawrence moving on to the NFL, Clemson is unlikely to take much of a step back as they go for their seventh consecutive appearance in the Playoff.

Lawrence will go down as one of the top quarterbacks ever in college football, but the position should not be much of an issue as DJ Uiagalelei is the next man up for the Tigers. If his time on the field last season was any indication, the Tigers should be just fine at signal caller.

Clemson is a heavy favorite to win the ACC once again without a clear No. 2 challenger, especially with Notre Dame no longer in the mix. Dabo Swinney has elevated this program to

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