February 1, 2023

Auto Priwors

The Education Specialists

2021 SEC win totals, odds, picks: Predictions for every team with major expectations for Alabama, Georgia

Here we are, ready to welcome in a normal college football season. Well, hopefully. The 2020 season made it nearly impossible to pick win totals for teams around the country due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the uncertainty over which games would be played. Now that we are in 2021, though, things are all systems go toward a standard, 12-game regular season. That means it’s time for some wagering. 

Betting odds have been released highlighting the win totals for every FBS team, and SEC teams are scattered all over the board in terms of what the oddsmakers expect. Check out the breakdown of the likely wins, losses and final record below for each team in the SEC in the 2021 season with odds provided via William Hill Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. 

Over/under 11.5 wins

  • Wins: vs. Miami, Mercer, at Florida, Southern Miss, Ole Miss, at Texas A&M, at Mississippi State, Tennessee, New Mexico State, Arkansas, at Auburn
  • Losses: LSU

Analysis: You’d have to be out of your mind to pick any team to go over 11.5 just because the only way that you can win is if that team has an undefeated regular season. Sure, it’s Alabama, but roster holes on offense are just too big to ignore against an LSU team that is going to look much more like the 2019 version of the Tigers than the 2020 edition. Alabama fans can take solace in the fact that an 11-1 season, even if it doesn’t include a berth in the SEC Championship Game, could land the Crimson Tide in the College Football Playoff. Pick: Under 11.5 (-120)


Over/under 5.5 wins

  • Wins: Rice, Georgia Southern, at Ole Miss, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Mississippi State
  • Losses: Texas, vs. Texas A&M, at Georgia, Auburn, at LSU, at Alabama, Missouri

Analysis: The Hogs are going to take a step forward in Sam Pittman’s second year, but a new quarterback combined with a road trip to Georgia as their rotating cross-division game will make it very hard for Pittman’s crew to make a bowl game. With that said, Auburn and Missouri are toss-up games which could put them over the top if they spring what will be minor upsets. Pick: Under 5.5 (-115)


Over/under 7 wins

  • Wins: Akron, Alabama State, Georgia State, at Arkansas, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, at South Carolina
  • Losses: at Penn State, at LSU, Georgia, at Texas A&M, Alabama

Analysis: Bryan Harsin’s first season will get a boost with South Carolina serving as the rotating cross-division game, but the road trip to Penn State in Week 3 will be a tough night for the Tigers. The quarterback battle between Bo Nix and TJ Finley should bring a culture of competition that will benefit the entire roster, but they still need a year to improve their strength and conditioning program and recruiting prowess. Pick: Push


Over/under 9 wins

  • Wins: Florida Atlantic, at USF, Tennessee, at Kentucky, Vanderbilt, at South Carolina, Samford, at Missouri, Florida State
  • Losses: Alabama, at LSU, vs. Georgia

Analysis: The Gators are going to take a small step back in 2021 due to massive roster turnover on the offensive side of the ball and the presence of Todd Grantham as their defensive coordinator (not a good thing). The game vs. Alabama in Week 3 is a brutal cross-division draw, and there are multiple toss-up games including Missouri, Kentucky and possibly Florida State. It’s going to be on Emory Jones and coach Dan Mullen to find the new identity of the offense. Pick: Push


Over/under 10.5 wins

  • Wins: vs. Clemson, UAB, South Carolina, at Vanderbilt, Arkansas, at Auburn, Kentucky, vs. Florida, Missouri, at Tennessee, vs. Charleston Southern, at Georgia Tech
  • Losses: None

Analysis: This is the year for Georgia. No, seriously, this is it. The Bulldogs are loaded on defense, have one of the best quarterbacks in the country, a loaded backfield and one of the best top-to-bottom rosters in the entire sport. Plus, they draw Arkansas as their rotating cross-division game and don’t exactly have a daunting road schedule. The experience should get them past Clemson in the opener. But even if they fall to the Tigers, an 11-win season still cashes. Pick: Over 10.5 (-130)


Over/under 7 wins

  • Wins: Louisiana-Monroe, Missouri, UT-Chattanooga, at South Carolina, at Mississippi State, at Vanderbilt, New Mexico State, at Louisville
  • Losses: Florida, LSU, at Georgia, Tennessee

Analysis: Coach Mark Stoops has established himself as one of the top coaches in the SEC due to his ability to develop stars in the trenches. That always gives his Wildcats a puncher’s chance — even against some of the best opponents in the conference. The cross-division game vs. LSU is bad luck, as is the Georgia game taking place in Athens instead of Lexington. With that said, the three other conference road games should be a breeze, which will propel the ‘Cats to a solid season in 2021. Pick: Over 7 (-130)


Over/under 8.5 wins

  • Wins: at UCLA, McNeese State, Central Michigan, at Mississippi State, Auburn, at Kentucky, Florida, at Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana-Monroe, Texas A&M
  • Losses: at Ole Miss

Analysis: Write it down in ink: LSU is back. The Tigers have one of the most talented offenses in the country, an experienced defense that is no longer coordinated by Bo Pelini and a healthy quarterback competition led by last year’s opening day starter Myles Brennan. They have the potential to run the table but, since Ole Miss is so potent offensively, will miss out on the perfect regular season. With that said, over 8.5 wins is one of the best bets in the college football universe. Pick: Over 8.5 (+100)

Mississippi State

Over/under 6 wins

  • Wins: Louisiana Tech, NC State, at Memphis, Tennessee State
  • Losses: LSU, at Texas A&M, Alabama, at Vanderbilt, Kentucky, at Arkansas, at Auburn, Ole Miss

Analysis: Mike Leach came to Mississippi State with a ton of hype, but I have my doubts that this system will work in the SEC. He showed no ability to adjust last season based on what opposing defenses were showing him, the offense lacks playmakers and it’s going to be really difficult for the Bulldogs to keep pace in what has become an increasingly offense-first league. Pick: Under 6 (Even)


Over/under 7 wins

  • Wins: Central Michigan, Southeast Missouri State, at Boston College, Tennessee, North Texas, at Vanderbilt, South Carolina, at Arkansas
  • Losses: at Kentucky, Texas A&M, at Georgia, Florida

Analysis: The cross-division game vs. Texas A&M game is more of a toss-up than a potential loss, which could be the deciding factor on whether this is a great season for the Tigers. Second-year coach Eli Drinkwitz has sophomore quarterback Connor Bazelak back after a good freshman campaign, a solid defense and an out-of-conference tilt at Boston College that isn’t exactly scary. Missouri never seems to get a ton of respect, but this is shaping up to be a pretty solid season for the boys in Columbia.  Pick: Over 7 (-130)

Ole Miss

Over/under 7.5 wins

  • Wins: vs. Louisville, Austin Peay, Tulane, at Tennessee, LSU, Liberty, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, at Mississippi State
  • Losses: at Alabama, Arkansas, at Auburn

Analysis: The Rebels are going to be must-see TV in 2021 due to coach Lane Kiffin’s potent offense led by quarterback Matt Corral and running back Jerrion Ealy. This is going to be a team that can score 45 points on anybody, but will also give up 50 from time to time. That’ll lead to an upset over LSU but a shocking loss to Arkansas. The cross-division game at Tennessee could get sketchy, but it’ll be a solid campaign in Year 2 under Kiffin. Pick: Over 7.5 (-135)

South Carolina

Over/under 3.5 wins

  • Wins: Eastern Illinois, at East Carolina, Troy, Vanderbilt
  • Losses: at Georgia, Kentucky, at Tennessee, at Texas A&M, Florida, at Missouri, Auburn, Clemson

Analysis: Man, check out this disrespect toward first-year coach Shane Beamer! The out-of-conference game vs. Clemson is an automatic loss, which means that, assuming the other three are wins, the Gamecocks could go winless in the SEC. Nope. Not with running back Kevin Harris. Not with a home game vs. Vanderbilt on the docket. It’s not like they’re going to contend for the SEC East title, but they aren’t going to be a complete disaster either. Pick: Over 3.5 (-165)


Over/under 6 wins*

  • Wins: Bowling Green, Tennessee Tech, South Carolina, at Kentucky, South Alabama, Vanderbilt
  • Losses: Pittsburgh, at Florida, at Missouri, Ole Miss, at Alabama, Georgia, 

Analysis: The Volunteers have a pretty healthy quarterback room featuring Hendon Hooker, Harrison Bailey and Joe Milton with a brilliant offensive mind at the helm in first-year coach Josh Heupel. The Week 2 matchup with Pitt is very interesting considering that it could set the tone for a surprising season. That said, Heupel’s crew should make a bowl even if they fall to the Panthers. After all, the dysfunction on Rocky Top can’t continue forever, right? Pick: Push

*Win total provided by Vegas Insider

Texas A&M

Over/under 9.5 wins

  • Wins: Kent State, at Colorado, New Mexico, vs. Arkansas, Mississippi State, at Missouri, South Carolina, Auburn, Prairie View A&M
  • Losses: Alabama, at Ole Miss, at LSU

Analysis: I wouldn’t bet on the Aggies win total either way, even if you gave me $5,000 of your own money. The talent is there, the coaching is there and the program’s momentum is clearly going in the right direction. That said, the Aggies still are unproven at quarterback, have to contend with LSU at the end of the season in Death Valley and an Ole Miss team that might force them into a shootout. I have the Ole Miss game as a loss, which will likely qualify as an upset. But if the Aggies can hold serve against the Rebels, over might be the play.  Pick: Under 9.5 (-130)


Over/under 3 wins

  • Wins: East Tennessee State, at Colorado State, UConn, Mississippi State
  • Losses: Stanford, Georgia, at Florida, at South Carolina, Missouri, Kentucky, at Ole Miss, at Tennessee

Analysis: Road games at Colorado State and at home vs. Stanford are definitely going to be tricky, which could send the Commodores on either side. I’ll take the ‘Dores to win over Colorado State and get their first SEC win since Oct. 19, 2019 when they host Mississippi State on Oct. 23. First-year coach Clark Lea will find a spark defensively, and Year 2 with quarterback Ken Seals should prevent them from being a total pushover. Pick: Over 3 (-140)